Tuesday 17 July 2012

Austerity Cannot Work.

We in Europe (UK included) are on the brink of being pushed in to an unnecessary economic depression. It is much the same in America but happening more rapidly. For people (politicians in the main) who would claim to have some modicum of intelligence, it is a mix of lunacy and dogma that occupies their minds. Although if they were to suffer the same financial fallout of the current austerity measures that they impose upon others with such relish or pay themselves the national minimum wage things perhaps might change a little and possibly quite rapidly.


Austerity is offered as the answer when it is not. In fact it is the complete opposite - it is and will continue to be, a main factor in deepening the economic depression even further. It simply cannot work. As a device to transfer money from the poor to the rich it works reasonably well (which is a main reason for it's current vigorous implementation) but to get the UK Plc out of depression it is counter-productive.


Like it or not we live in a consumer society. If the general public do not or cannot consume above subsistence levels then the economy shrinks and eventually implodes into a state of economic depression such as is happening right now. The solution of the conventional wisdom of today (just as was in the 1920's)? More cuts; more job losses; less disposable income; less consumption; more depression. If individuals and families cannot spend over and above what they need to survive then the consumer society we all depend on for our personal prosperity dies a slow and anorexic death. 


In addition to this if you put people out of a job they draw benefits and don't pay income tax or National Insurance and they don't pay as much VAT because they can't afford luxury items. They have to 'make do' - 'make shift - and 'mend'. Their consumerism is confined to eating enough to stay alive and hopefully to put a roof over their heads full stop. To all intents and purposes they become 'non-consumers'. Their numbers are growing.


So there's a 'double-whammy' here; they cannot spend because they don't have any income above subsistence (lowly subsistence at that too when on benefits although the ridiculous mythology of the 'Benefit Millionaire' still abounds) and they are paid to sit on their backsides. The Aboriginals summed it up neatly when they called the Australian Government dole money they receive as "sit down money".


John Maynard Keynes in the 20's and 30's had it spot on and Roosevelt's 'New Deal' in America brought his ideas to life. You have to spend and spend big and, via what Keynes called "The Multiplier Effect" alongside financial prudence, you can actually pull yourself out of recession/depression. It works and works every time unless thwarted by political dogma and/or the International Banking Financial Mafia.


Keynesianism will make a return, although it may be called something else like 'Osbornism' or 'Cameronism' or 'Cleggism' even. In fact it's already started with announcements about £Billion investments in the rail and road infrastructure, but it will take time and some may still see it as nothing more than convenient coincidence. It's not. However, it will not work alongside austerity too well as the austerity measures will be a drag on it. We need to ditch 'austerity' in favour of proven methods of economic recovery. 


In essence the economy of today is no different from the economy of yesterday. It will respond in the exact same way and this can be seen today as the austerity measures being applied right now are evidently deflationary just as was in the 1930's. A dose of Keynes would have the opposite effect.



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